819 Deal Ave

Sublette, KS 67877

$150,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,025 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,291/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$269
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-436/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-436/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (14.0% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $129k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#240 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sublette (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #174 of 280 in KS (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sublette Elem (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #358 of 684 statewide, top 56%, 202 students, 74% FRL); Sublette Middle (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #149 of 219 statewide, top 69%, 58 students, 57% FRL); Sublette High (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #249 of 327 statewide, top 79%, 131 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.
• Haskell County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.