819 Deal Ave · Sublette, KS 67877

$150,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,025 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2000 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-436/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#240 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sublette (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #174 of 280 in KS (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sublette Elem (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #358 of 684 statewide, top 56%, 202 students, 74% FRL); Sublette Middle (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #149 of 219 statewide, top 69%, 58 students, 57% FRL); Sublette High (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #249 of 327 statewide, top 79%, 131 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Haskell County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $129,065 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,955
• Equity at exit: $53,793

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $30,926
• Equity at exit: $73,529

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67877

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,482/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $143,588

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $6	+0% $-36	+5% $-79	+10% $-121
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-87	+0% $-36	+5% $15	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $2	base $-36	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-08
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,482
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,988
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$717
• After-tax cash flow: $282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sublette
• NCES district ID: 2012090
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,918
• Composite: 28.12/100
• National rank: #12211
• State rank: #174 of 280 in KS

Livability — Sublette

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #10700

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sublette, KS
• Population (ZIP): 2,287

Population outlook (Haskell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,782 people
• By 2030: 3,650 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 3,428 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 3,267 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 3,135 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 3,052 · -19.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Polish 4% Iranian 4% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Haskell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.5) · D 17.3% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -63.6pp · 2024: -64.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.5 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+60.2 2012: R+68.6 2008: R+63.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Current HPI: 171.8191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-10 Pending — SWKSBOR
• 2025-04-08 Listed $150,000 SWKSBOR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,482 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.