9828 State Route 492

Sturgis, KY 42459

$109,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,004 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $926/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-333/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $30,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-333/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (15.7% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $93k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#199 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Union County (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #134 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sturgis Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 369 students, 60% FRL); Union County Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 437 students, 58% FRL); Union County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 630 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP.
• Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.