9828 State Route 492 · Sturgis, KY 42459

$109,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1970 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

1 acre and home in rural Union county priced affordably and maintained impeccably.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-333/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#199 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Union County (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #134 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sturgis Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 369 students, 60% FRL); Union County Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 437 students, 58% FRL); Union County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 630 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,629 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-19,317
• Equity at exit: $16,645

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-18,832
• Equity at exit: $9,947

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42459

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $105,888

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $10	+0% $-28	+5% $-66	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-101	-5% $-64	+0% $-28	+5% $9	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $0	base $-28	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   historical
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $109,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$889
• − Management: −$889
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable loss: −$2,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$531
• After-tax cash flow: $199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County
• NCES district ID: 2105640
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,776
• Composite: 22.27/100
• National rank: #8139
• State rank: #134 of 165 in KY

Livability — Sturgis

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #9856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,965

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,038 people
• By 2030: 14,681 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 13,607 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 12,406 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 9,720 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 7,841 · -47.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.3) · D 20.2% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -53.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -58.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.3 2020: R+52.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.95%
• Current HPI: 180.9754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Delisted — HABOR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $109,900 HABOR

Property tax history

-8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $119 · -20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.