200 1st Ave S

Cavalier, ND 58220

$79,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,382/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $560/mo
• Annual: $6,716/yr
• Cap rate: 14.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.36%
• DSCR: 2.35
• 1% rule: 1.75%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#83 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Cavalier 6 (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #12 of 53 in ND (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cavalier Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #118 of 236 statewide, top 54%, 220 students, 26% FRL); Cavalier High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #9 of 144 statewide, top 8%, 192 students, 26% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pembina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pembina County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.