200 1st Ave S · Cavalier, ND 58220

$79,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Other · 10 Days on market

Built 1920 0.32 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.5 story character home at the corner of Mountain St. and W 1st Ave S in Cavalier. Denver Home Ownership Center (DHOC) is now offering the FHA $100 Down Sales Incentive using FHA financing!Marketed by Chronos Solutions. Go to http://www. hudhomestore.com or www. chronossolutions.com for additional information and forms. Sold As-is. HUD Property #401-130675.

Key facts

• Build equity
• Custom home
• Spacious corner lot

Tags

• CUSTOM HOME
• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• BUILD EQUITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Cooling (central or unspecified)
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#83 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Cavalier 6 (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #12 of 53 in ND (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pembina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Pembina County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.36%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $57,838
• Equity at exit: $48,994

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $142,410
• Equity at exit: $88,277

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58220

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,014/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $604	-5% $582	+0% $560	+5% $537	+10% $515
Rent	-10% $451	-5% $505	+0% $560	+5% $614	+10% $669
Rate	-1.0pp $599	-0.5pp $580	base $560	+0.5pp $539	+1.0pp $518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $79,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,014 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,014 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,014
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $5,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $5,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cavalier 6
• NCES district ID: 3800018
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,577
• Composite: 42.29/100
• National rank: #3264
• State rank: #12 of 53 in ND

Livability — Cavalier

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #7850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cavalier, ND
• Population (ZIP): 2,215

Population outlook (Pembina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,414 people
• By 2030: 6,060 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 5,383 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 4,925 · -23.2%
• By 2075: 5,025 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 6,293 · -1.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 24% Lithuanian 8% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pembina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.3) · D 22.8% · R 76.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.3 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+49.2 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.87%
• Current HPI: 137.4829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $79,000 GFAAR
• 2021-02-26 Sold (MLS) — GFAAR
• 2020-10-30 Listed $40,000 GFAAR
• 2018-10-16 Listed $65,000 GFAAR
• 2018-01-10 Listed $79,700 GFAAR
• 2012-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,014 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.