17827 Upland Dr SE

McKenna, WA 98597

$298,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,567/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$175
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-20/mo
• Annual: $-246/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $83,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-246/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#300 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lackamas Elementary (310 students, 55% FRL); Ridgeline Middle School (574 students, 46% FRL); Yelm High School 12 (1,634 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 34% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 434 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in McKenna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.