17827 Upland Dr SE · McKenna, WA 98597

$298,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1991 0.26 ac lot Est $392k · 24% under $175/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordably priced in highly desired gated Clearwood community. Buy now in time for summer fun! 3 bedroom 1.75 bath home with primary suite. Large . 26 acres quiet cul-de-sac lot with room to expand. Enjoy coffee on the wood deck and grow some veggies or flowers in the raised garden beds. Fenced back yard for privacy and/or pets. Storage shed. 3 Lakes for boating, fishing, swimming at the beaches. BBQ pits for parties, playgrounds, tennis & basketball courts, heated swimming pool & jacuzzi, plus several miles of hiking trails to enjoy nature! Apple and cherry trees.

Key facts

• Wood deck
• Fenced back yard
• Quiet cul de sac lot

Tags

• GATED CLEARWOOD COMMUNITY
• QUIET CUL DE SAC LOT
• WOOD DECK
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS
• FENCED BACK YARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Offers review date: Monday, May 25, 2026
• Financial info: Listing terms: Conventional
• HOA & community: HOA: Clearwood HOA; HOA fee $175 per month covering common area and road maintenance; Community waterfront / private beach access; Level topography

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking
• Security: Partially fenced; Security gate
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water (Clearwood HOA); Septic sewer; Puget Sound Energy power; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence, one-story; Main level entry; Has view; Average condition
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Block foundation; Built on lot
• Exterior features: Wood exterior products; Partially fenced lot; Gated entry; Outbuildings; Garden space; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: Water heater; Partial security fencing and security gate
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Water heater located in the laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-246/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in McKenna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#300 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lackamas Elementary (310 students, 55% FRL); Ridgeline Middle School (574 students, 46% FRL); Yelm High School 12 (1,634 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 34% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 434 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $256,734 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22526 Clearland Ln SE	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+4%)	6mo	$380,000	$302	85
17834 Rising Ct SE	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+6%)	3mo	$411,000	$323	81
17804 Clear Lake Blvd SE	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+9%)	2mo	$434,950	$331	80
22429 Clearview Ct SE	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+7%)	3mo	$420,000	$325	79
18441 Blue Hills Loop SE	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,211 (+0%)	2mo	$403,000	$333	68
22127 N Clear Lake Blvd SE	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+8%)	3mo	$455,000	$349	67
17924 E Clear Lake Blvd SE	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,364 (+13%)	7mo	$298,400	$219	61
22418 N Clear Lake Blvd SE	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,298 (+8%)	8mo	$435,000	$335	60
18305 Parkcrest Ct SE	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+13%)	4mo	$430,000	$316	56
18417 Blue Hills Loop SE	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+9%)	2mo	$415,000	$315	55
21932 SE Promontory Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-5%)	7mo	$326,250	$285	54
18425 Rampart Dr SE	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-10%)	6mo	$369,000	$339	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-42,180
• Equity at exit: $44,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-6,212
• Equity at exit: $25,766

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98597

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 434
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,241/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,593

Max offer price $294,384

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $64	+0% $-20	+5% $-105	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-122	+0% $-20	+5% $81	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $55	base $-20	+0.5pp $-98	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18525 Woodside Dr SE Yelm, WA	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,299	$1.87	14d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $298,000 Active
2. 2022-03-18
   soldstatus $350,000 Closed
3. 2022-02-12
   status Pending
4. 2022-01-14
   listed $350,000 Active
5. 2011-05-13
   status Pending
6. 2011-05-13
   soldstatus $69,000 Sold
7. 2011-05-03
   status Pending Inspection
8. 2011-04-14
   price $70,000
9. 2011-03-31
   listed $74,900 Active
10. 2006-02-28
    soldstatus $167,000
11. 2006-02-28
    soldstatus $167,000
12. 2006-01-07
    listed $167,000
13. 1995-07-31
    soldstatus $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,920 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$679/yr (+$57/mo · 30.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$2,241
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,465
• − Management: −$2,465
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$5,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,275
• After-tax cash flow: $1,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yelm School District
• NCES district ID: 5310140
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,328
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #4685
• State rank: #108 of 291 in WA

Livability — McKenna

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #10587

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 61
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,669
• Household income: $92,219
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.07%
• Current HPI: 326.4361
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+273.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $298,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-18 Sold (MLS) $350,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-14 Listed $350,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-13 Sold (MLS) $69,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-14 Price Changed $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-31 Listed $74,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-28 Sold (MLS) $167,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-07 Listed $167,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,241 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.