11068 Lake Julia Rd

Remsen, NY 13438

$205,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $869/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-716/mo
• Annual: $-8,594/yr
• Cap rate: 2.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.97%
• DSCR: 0.33
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-716 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $78k (61.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (57.6% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (61.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#957 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Remsen Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #459 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Remsen Elementary School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 228 students, 51% FRL); Remsen Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 179 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 38% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $205k implies a 412% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.