11068 Lake Julia Rd · Remsen, NY 13438

$205,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1962 2.02 ac lot $237/sqft · 14% below area Est $330k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Adirondack-style retreat on 2.02 wooded acres in Remsen, just minutes from Kayuta Lake and the Black River, offering privacy, versatility, and true North Country character. This unique chalet features a warm, rustic interior with vaulted ceilings, exposed woodwork, and a woodstove that anchors the main living space. The open-concept kitchen includes ample cabinetry, island workspace, and flows comfortably into the living area—ideal for relaxed everyday living or weekend getaways. The home offers multiple sleeping areas, including first-floor bedrooms plus an expansive loft and upper-level sleeping spaces, providing flexibility for guests, family, or short-term rental potential. The lo

Key facts

• Decorative pond
• Firepit area
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SEPARATE LIVING AREA
• DECORATIVE POND
• FIREPIT AREA
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Metal roof; Rectangular, rural lot (approximately 2.02 acres, dimensions 237 x 381)
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Block foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Propane tank (leased); Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane-fired forced air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Dry bar; Eat-in kitchen; Natural woodwork; Loft
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-716 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $78k (61.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (57.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $78k (61.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#957 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Remsen Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #459 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Remsen Elementary School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 228 students, 51% FRL); Remsen Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 179 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 38% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $205k implies a 412% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $78,485 (61.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.97%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 19.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,376
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -37.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11050 Lake Julia Rd	0.05mi	2/1.0 (+1)	800 (-7%)	12mo	$159,000	$199	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $66,039
• Equity at exit: $184,680

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $230,354
• Equity at exit: $398,270

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13438

• Home prices YoY: 10.1%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 19.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,904/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-716

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,775

Max offer price $78,485

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-600	-5% $-658	+0% $-716	+5% $-774	+10% $-832
Rent	-10% $-785	-5% $-750	+0% $-716	+5% $-682	+10% $-648
Rate	-1.0pp $-613	-0.5pp $-664	base $-716	+0.5pp $-769	+1.0pp $-823

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $205,000 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
9. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 1689-char remark
10. 2026-05-03
    listed $205,000 Active 1689-char remark
11. 2024-01-16
    historical
12. 2023-10-13
    historical
13. 2023-09-11
    price $214,900
14. 2023-08-17
    price $218,900
15. 2023-08-04
    listed $249,900 Active
16. 2003-01-11
    historical
17. 2002-07-15
    listed $59,900
18. 2000-08-03
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,184 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: +$280/yr (+$23/mo · 9.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,904
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$834
• − Management: −$834
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$12,619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,029
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsen Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624360
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,167
• Composite: 44.82/100
• National rank: #5936
• State rank: #459 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsen

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #957
• US rank: #18762

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,310

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.60%
• Current HPI: 368.1042
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+412.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $205,000 CNYIS
• 2024-01-16 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-10-13 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $214,900 CNYIS
• 2023-08-17 Price Changed $218,900 CNYIS
• 2023-08-04 Listed $249,900 CNYIS
• 2003-01-11 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2002-07-15 Listed $59,900 CNYIS
• 2000-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,904 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.