1301 N Down River Rd

Grayling, MI 49738

$56,288B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $755/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$295
• Tax + insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$159
• Net cashflow: $258/mo
• Annual: $3,100/yr
• Cap rate: 11.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.67%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $15,761

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($755 rent vs $56k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $389 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#269 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crawford Ausable Schools (town): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 540 in MI (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 75 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.0% in Grayling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.