1301 N Down River Rd · Grayling, MI 49738

$56,288

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1955 $102/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming opportunity in the heart of Grayling! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with a 1-car garage makes a great first-time home or investment property. Conveniently located close to schools, the hospital, shopping, and everyday amenities. Enjoy the comfort of in-town living with plenty of potential to make it your own. Whether you're looking to start out, downsize, or expand your investment portfolio, this home is worth a look! Message Inserted (05/14/2026 11:26 AM) On: 1301 N DOWN RIVER ROAD, GRAYLING MI 49738. This property is posted on the MyNextBid auction website. All offers must be submitted through this link: https://mynextbid.com/property/2859/-1301- N-Down-River-Road-Grayling-MI-49

Key facts

• Close to hospital
• Close to schools
• Close to shopping

Tags

• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO HOSPITAL
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Paved road access; .17-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating
• Interior features: Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($755 rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.0% in Grayling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#269 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crawford Ausable Schools (town): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 540 in MI (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 75 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $389 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,599 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.67%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,000
• List price: $56,288
• Delta: -57.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $7,314
• Equity at exit: $8,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $27,477
• Equity at exit: $4,867

Cash invested: $15,761 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49738

• Home prices YoY: -19.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$295
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $237/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$159
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $428

Max offer price $56,288

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,072
• Closing costs: $1,689
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,288 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,288 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,288 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $56,288 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,250 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,250 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,250 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,250 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,250 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,250 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,250 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,250 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,250 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,250 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,250 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $59,250 Active 735-char remark
17. 2005-08-15
    soldstatus $55,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $237 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $552 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 132.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,153
• − Property taxes: −$237
• − Insurance: −$281
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$725
• − Management: −$725
• − Depreciation: −$1,637
• Taxable income: $2,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$553
• After-tax cash flow: $2,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crawford Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611030
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,396
• Composite: 38.94/100
• National rank: #4086
• State rank: #140 of 540 in MI

Livability — Grayling

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #6631

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,599

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,042 people
• By 2030: 12,520 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 11,292 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 10,157 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 8,338 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 6,765 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.5% · R 66.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.7pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+32.8 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.14%
• Current HPI: 280.922
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $56,288 WWMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $59,250 WWMLS
• 2005-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $55,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $237 · -44.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.