2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,479 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,067/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$412
Tax + insurance
−$89
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$224
Net cashflow
$342/mo
Annual
$4,102/yr
Cap rate
11.52%
Cash-on-cash
18.66%
DSCR
1.83
1% rule
1.36%
Cash to close
$21,980
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($543 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#37 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
Pawhuska (town): math 9% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #248 of 270 in OK (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Osage County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Osage County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $23k; list at $78k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RZ2BT29TNKNT5T
· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29