2141 E 790 North Rd

Shelbyville, IL 62565

$74,900C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $806/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $165/mo
• Annual: $1,980/yr
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.44%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $20,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($806 rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#355 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelbyville CUSD 4 (town): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #225 of 620 in IL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $75k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.0% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.