3159 Misty Morning Ln

Mesquite, TX 75126

$232,245C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,322/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,218
• Tax + insurance: −$387
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $188/mo
• Annual: $2,250/yr
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.46%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $65,029

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (0.0% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.