3159 Misty Morning Ln · Mesquite, TX 75126

$232,245

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,356 sqft lot $148/sqft · at area comps Est $239k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New! Super cute single story with four bedroom and two full baths. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, and so much more! Welcome to Talty, Texas — where small-town charm meets modern living. Nestled just east of Dallas, Talty offers a peaceful, family-friendly atmosphere with convenient access to big-city amenities. This growing town is perfect for those looking to enjoy a relaxed lifestyle while staying close to Forney ISD schools, shopping, dining, and recreational opportunities. Our thoughtfully designed homes in Talty are built with you in mind, offering spacious floor plans, energy-efficient features, and stylish finishes. Our new homes in Talty are designed with modern conveniences, open-concept living spaces, and flexible options like home offices or guest suites. Maplewood Meadows offers a welcoming environment where neighbors can connect and families can thrive.

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Island kitchen
• Granite counters

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• ENERGY EFFICIENT FEATURES
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $211,342 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.46%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,990
• List price: $232,245
• Delta: -2.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3706 Morning Dew Ct	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-6%)	1mo	$257,990	$176	80
3135 Misty Morning Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-6%)	2mo	$256,490	$174	79
3163 Misty Morning Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-9%)	2mo	$239,490	$167	79
3147 Misty Morning Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-9%)	1mo	$240,990	$168	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-29,265
• Equity at exit: $34,628

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,305
• Equity at exit: $20,080

Cash invested: $65,029 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,322 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,218
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$290 /mo · $3,484/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,085

Max offer price $232,245

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,061
• Closing costs: $6,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1609 Duke Dr Crandall, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$2,490	$1.54	1d	1	1.02mi
1209 Kings Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,975	$1.46	1d	1	1.10mi
4624 Verdin St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,950	$1.40	1d	1	1.18mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	43d	1	1.28mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	43d	1	1.38mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	24d	1	1.44mi
4484 Bonney Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1206	$2,000	$1.66	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $249,800 952-char remark

   Show marketing remark (952 chars)

   New! Super cute single story with four bedroom and two full baths. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, and so much more! Welcome to Talty, Texas — where small-town charm meets modern living. Nestled just east of Dallas, Talty offers a peaceful, family-friendly atmosphere with convenient access to big-city amenities. This growing town is perfect for those looking to enjoy a relaxed lifestyle while staying close to Forney ISD schools, shopping, dining, and recreational opportunities. Our thoughtfully designed homes in Talty are built with you in mind, offering spacious floor plans, energy-efficient features, and stylish finishes. Our new homes in Talty are designed with modern conveniences, open-concept living spaces, and flexible options like home offices or guest suites. Maplewood Meadows offers a welcoming environment where neighbors can connect and families can thrive.

2. 2026-04-20
   price $254,800 952-char remark

   Show marketing remark (952 chars)

   New! Super cute single story with four bedroom and two full baths. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, and so much more! Welcome to Talty, Texas — where small-town charm meets modern living. Nestled just east of Dallas, Talty offers a peaceful, family-friendly atmosphere with convenient access to big-city amenities. This growing town is perfect for those looking to enjoy a relaxed lifestyle while staying close to Forney ISD schools, shopping, dining, and recreational opportunities. Our thoughtfully designed homes in Talty are built with you in mind, offering spacious floor plans, energy-efficient features, and stylish finishes. Our new homes in Talty are designed with modern conveniences, open-concept living spaces, and flexible options like home offices or guest suites. Maplewood Meadows offers a welcoming environment where neighbors can connect and families can thrive.

3. 2026-04-20
   status Active 952-char remark

   Show marketing remark (952 chars)

   New! Super cute single story with four bedroom and two full baths. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, and so much more! Welcome to Talty, Texas — where small-town charm meets modern living. Nestled just east of Dallas, Talty offers a peaceful, family-friendly atmosphere with convenient access to big-city amenities. This growing town is perfect for those looking to enjoy a relaxed lifestyle while staying close to Forney ISD schools, shopping, dining, and recreational opportunities. Our thoughtfully designed homes in Talty are built with you in mind, offering spacious floor plans, energy-efficient features, and stylish finishes. Our new homes in Talty are designed with modern conveniences, open-concept living spaces, and flexible options like home offices or guest suites. Maplewood Meadows offers a welcoming environment where neighbors can connect and families can thrive.

4. 2026-03-30
   status Pending 952-char remark

   Show marketing remark (952 chars)

   New! Super cute single story with four bedroom and two full baths. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, and so much more! Welcome to Talty, Texas — where small-town charm meets modern living. Nestled just east of Dallas, Talty offers a peaceful, family-friendly atmosphere with convenient access to big-city amenities. This growing town is perfect for those looking to enjoy a relaxed lifestyle while staying close to Forney ISD schools, shopping, dining, and recreational opportunities. Our thoughtfully designed homes in Talty are built with you in mind, offering spacious floor plans, energy-efficient features, and stylish finishes. Our new homes in Talty are designed with modern conveniences, open-concept living spaces, and flexible options like home offices or guest suites. Maplewood Meadows offers a welcoming environment where neighbors can connect and families can thrive.

5. 2026-03-26
   price $249,490 952-char remark

   Show marketing remark (952 chars)

   New! Super cute single story with four bedroom and two full baths. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, and so much more! Welcome to Talty, Texas — where small-town charm meets modern living. Nestled just east of Dallas, Talty offers a peaceful, family-friendly atmosphere with convenient access to big-city amenities. This growing town is perfect for those looking to enjoy a relaxed lifestyle while staying close to Forney ISD schools, shopping, dining, and recreational opportunities. Our thoughtfully designed homes in Talty are built with you in mind, offering spacious floor plans, energy-efficient features, and stylish finishes. Our new homes in Talty are designed with modern conveniences, open-concept living spaces, and flexible options like home offices or guest suites. Maplewood Meadows offers a welcoming environment where neighbors can connect and families can thrive.

6. 2026-02-05
   listed $259,490 Active 952-char remark

   Show marketing remark (952 chars)

   New! Super cute single story with four bedroom and two full baths. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, and so much more! Welcome to Talty, Texas — where small-town charm meets modern living. Nestled just east of Dallas, Talty offers a peaceful, family-friendly atmosphere with convenient access to big-city amenities. This growing town is perfect for those looking to enjoy a relaxed lifestyle while staying close to Forney ISD schools, shopping, dining, and recreational opportunities. Our thoughtfully designed homes in Talty are built with you in mind, offering spacious floor plans, energy-efficient features, and stylish finishes. Our new homes in Talty are designed with modern conveniences, open-concept living spaces, and flexible options like home offices or guest suites. Maplewood Meadows offers a welcoming environment where neighbors can connect and families can thrive.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,009
• − Property taxes: −$3,484
• − Insurance: −$1,161
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,229
• − Management: −$2,229
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,756
• Taxable loss: −$1,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $2,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Talty, Texas, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floor plan, energy-efficient features, and stylish finishes, making it an ideal choice for those seeking a relaxed lifestyle with easy access to amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $249,800 NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $254,800 NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $249,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $259,490 NTREIS