4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,688 sqft ·
Built 2009
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 215 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,167/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$295
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$455
Net cashflow
$-77/mo
Annual
$-924/yr
Cap rate
5.97%
Cash-on-cash
-1.16%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$79,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-924/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (4.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (23.9% below list).
It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $217k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#39 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
Kingsport (urban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #26 of 139 in TN (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: John Sevier Middle School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #172 of 333 statewide, top 52%, 750 students, 0% FRL); Dobyns - Bennett High School (math 23% / reading 56%, grade F, #28 of 332 statewide, top 9%, 2,514 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 47% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 239 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $143k; list at $285k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Kingsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,167/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1384% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RZFBQZ5TVPAX3D
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29