The Charleston (Custom) - Build On Your Land Plan

Cranberry, PA 16066

$459,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,360 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 1004 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,861/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,776
• Tax + insurance: −$1,200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$811
• Net cashflow: $-1,926/mo
• Annual: $-23,113/yr
• Cap rate: 3.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.46%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $201,620

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $459k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $441k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $386k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $386k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Seneca Valley SD (rural): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #73 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Haine El Sch (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #377 of 1,518 statewide, top 28%, 813 students, 21% FRL); Ryan Gloyer Ms (math 32% / reading 64%, grade C-, #153 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 1,123 students, 21% FRL); Seneca Valley Hs (math 71% / reading 75%, grade B+, #35 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 2,307 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 397 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.