1306 Webb Ferrell Rd S

Arlington, TX 76002

$341,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,297 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,855/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,788
• Tax + insurance: −$1,061
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $-594/mo
• Annual: $-7,124/yr
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $95,480

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $341k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-594 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($336k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 98 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.