120 E Warren St

Moweaqua, IL 62550

$145,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,428 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,204/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-33/mo
• Annual: $-399/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-399/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#616 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Central A & M CUD 21 (rural): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #477 of 620 in IL (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gregory Intermediate (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #940 of 2,056 statewide, top 49%, 192 students, 0% FRL); Central A & M Middle School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #550 of 665 statewide, top 84%, 168 students, 0% FRL); Central A & M High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 225 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 32% district-wide (32 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $145k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.