1095-W McCoy Ln #91

Santa Maria, CA 93455

$139,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $1,163/mo
• Annual: $13,957/yr
• Cap rate: 16.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.86%
• DSCR: 2.60
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#202 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Maria-Bonita (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #1,023 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $139k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.5% in Santa Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.