8816 Collins Ave #105

Surfside, FL 33154

$429,990D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · Built 1995 · Condo · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,632/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$1,175
• HOA: −$761
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$973
• Net cashflow: $-531/mo
• Annual: $-6,371/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $120,397

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-531 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (21.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $430k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($391k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $336k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#258 in FL, #4,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruth K. Broad Bay Harbor K-8 Center (math 76% / reading 76%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL); Miami Beach Nautilus Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 918 students, 44% FRL); Miami Beach Senior High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 2,175 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 64% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 523 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $430k implies a 258% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,632/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?