8816 Collins Ave #105 · Surfside, FL 33154

$429,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · Condo public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1995 $761/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2-Bed/2-Bath at 8816 Collins Ave – Prime Surfside Living & Investment Opportunity. Discover exceptional value in this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence located in one of Surfside’s most desirable oceanfront corridors. This well-maintained unit features a fully equipped kitchen, an open living and dining area filled with natural light, generous closets, and a private balcony perfect for enjoying coastal breezes. This property is ideal for end-users and investors alike, offering strong rental potential in a high-demand beachside community while also providing the comfort and convenience of year-round living. Situated just steps from the beach, the

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Steps from the beach
• $761 HOA

Tags

• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• STEPS FROM THE BEACH
• MINUTES FROM BAL HARBOUR SHOPS
• TOP RATED RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered; Pets allowed (yes) — more than 20 lbs allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association fee covers cable TV, insurance, and grounds maintenance; Community amenities include pool and elevator(s)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage; Garage door opener; One designated space
• Security: Secured garage/parking; Intercom; Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Association pool
• Home design: Attached property; 4 total stories; Entry on level 2
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Balcony; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Closet cabinetry; Dual sinks; Entrance foyer; Living/dining room; Tub with shower; Elevator access
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-531 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (21.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $430k).
• Recommended offer: $336k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#258 in FL, #4,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruth K. Broad Bay Harbor K-8 Center (math 76% / reading 76%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL); Miami Beach Nautilus Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 918 students, 44% FRL); Miami Beach Senior High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 2,175 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 64% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 523 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,632/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($391k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $430k implies a 258% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $336,207 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.12% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $80,754
• Equity at exit: $273,688

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $240,457
• Equity at exit: $499,261

Cash invested: $120,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33154

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$569 /mo · $6,826/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$761
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$973
• Net cashflow: $-531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,304

Max offer price $336,207

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-287	-5% $-409	+0% $-531	+5% $-653	+10% $-774
Rent	-10% $-897	-5% $-714	+0% $-531	+5% $-348	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-314	-0.5pp $-422	base $-531	+0.5pp $-642	+1.0pp $-756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,498
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8701 Collins Ave #304 Surfside, FL	2.0	2.5	1457	$25,000	$17.16	26d	1	0.11mi
9703 Collins Ave Bal Harbour, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1401	$26,000	$18.56	26d	2	1.02mi
9703 Collins Ave #1006 Bal Harbour, FL	1.0	1.0	1261	$26,000	$20.62	24d	1	1.02mi
580 72nd St Unit 1263798P Miami Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1194	$7,494	$6.28	3d	2	1.19mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $761 · $9,132/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $429,990 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,990 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $429,990 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $440,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $440,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $440,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $440,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $440,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $440,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $440,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $440,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $440,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $440,000
17. 2026-03-25
    price $460,000
18. 2026-03-16
    historical
19. 2026-03-14
    historical $3,400
20. 2026-03-12
    listed $499,000 Active
21. 2026-01-11
    listed $540,000 Active
22. 2026-01-01
    listed $3,400
23. 2025-12-24
    historical $3,400
24. 2025-12-22
    listed $3,400
25. 2025-11-19
    historical $3,500
26. 2025-06-26
    listed $3,500
27. 2000-01-13
    soldstatus $120,000
28. 1999-03-18
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,826 · $569/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,826 · $569/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,086
• − Property taxes: −$6,826
• − Insurance: −$7,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,447
• − Management: −$4,447
• − HOA: −$9,132
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$13,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Surfside

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #4141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surfside, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,572
• Household income: $89,563
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 774.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 25% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 12% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.12%
• Current HPI: 454.1747
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.30%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+340.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $440,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $460,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $3,400 MARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $499,000 MARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $540,000 MARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed for Rent $3,400 MARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Rental Removed $3,400 MARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed for Rent $3,400 MARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Rental Removed $3,500 MARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed for Rent $3,500 MARMLS
• 2000-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,826 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.