369 Lake Forest Dr

Lost Bridge Village, AR 72631

$525,000C-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$559
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,088
• Net cashflow: $782/mo
• Annual: $9,384/yr
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.38%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $518k (1.3% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $509k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Eureka Springs School District (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #61 of 238 in AR (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $375k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.