369 Lake Forest Dr · Lost Bridge Village, AR 72631

$525,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2007 4.65 ac lot $294/sqft · 26% above area Est $430k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Multi-level home. Two levels finished and heated 1838 sq ft. Plus-walkout basement heated and partially finished with full bath. 4.65 acres / 2 car garage / 3 bedroom / 3.5 bath. This is a two-level log home. It boast plenty of natural light with many large windows. The main bedroom is on the main level, and two guest rooms are located on the second level. The interior boast elegant wood floors, tongue-and-grove cedar wood paneling in the great room, and a spacious vaulted ceiling. This home features four decks overlooking the woods. Set and watch the deer while drinking your coffee. Nestled in the heart of the Ozarks, this property offers unmatched access to some of Northwest Arkansas' most sought after outdoor attractions. Located just 10 miles from Eureka Springs, you'll enjoy fine dining, unique shops, and weekly entertainment in one of the regions most charming towns. For water and natures enthusiasts, Beaver Lake and Dam is only minutes away. Fish the White River. This is truly an outdoorsman paradise.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Walkout basement
• Natural light

Tags

• MULTI-LEVEL HOME
• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS VAULTED CEILING
• FOUR DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $518k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $509k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Eureka Springs School District (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #61 of 238 in AR (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $375k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $509,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.38%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $430,470
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: 21.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
369 Lake Forest Dr	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,838 (+3%)	16mo	$375,000	$204	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $243,077
• Equity at exit: $374,516

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $668,222
• Equity at exit: $721,323

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72631

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,088/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,088
• Net cashflow: $782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,193

Max offer price $525,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,079	-5% $931	+0% $782	+5% $633	+10% $485
Rent	-10% $373	-5% $577	+0% $782	+5% $987	+10% $1,191
Rate	-1.0pp $1,046	-0.5pp $915	base $782	+0.5pp $646	+1.0pp $508

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
85 Center Rd Unit 1221900P Eureka Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1237	$5,183	$4.19	14d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $525,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $525,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $525,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $525,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $525,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $525,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $525,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $525,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $525,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $525,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $525,000 Active 1024-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1024 chars)

    Multi-level home. Two levels finished and heated 1838 sq ft. Plus-walkout basement heated and partially finished with full bath. 4.65 acres / 2 car garage / 3 bedroom / 3.5 bath. This is a two-level log home. It boast plenty of natural light with many large windows. The main bedroom is on the main level, and two guest rooms are located on the second level. The interior boast elegant wood floors, tongue-and-grove cedar wood paneling in the great room, and a spacious vaulted ceiling. This home features four decks overlooking the woods. Set and watch the deer while drinking your coffee. Nestled in the heart of the Ozarks, this property offers unmatched access to some of Northwest Arkansas' most sought after outdoor attractions. Located just 10 miles from Eureka Springs, you'll enjoy fine dining, unique shops, and weekly entertainment in one of the regions most charming towns. For water and natures enthusiasts, Beaver Lake and Dam is only minutes away. Fish the White River. This is truly an outdoorsman paradise.

17. 2025-02-21
    soldstatus $375,000
18. 2006-07-11
    soldstatus $92,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,088 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,088 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$4,088
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,976
• − Management: −$4,976
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable income: $850
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$204
• After-tax cash flow: $9,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eureka Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0505970
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,912
• Composite: 34.55/100
• National rank: #5171
• State rank: #61 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lost Bridge Village

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #21912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,084

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,014 people
• By 2030: 28,006 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 28,242 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 29,169 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 33,935 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 39,497 · +41.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+32.3 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.31%
• Current HPI: 260.9347
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+470.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $525,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,088 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.