848 31st St

Newport News, VA 23607

$178,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,045 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,424/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax + insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-918/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $49,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-918/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carver Elementary (math 14% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,066 of 1,108 statewide, top 96%, 600 students, 90% FRL); Huntington Middle (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #341 of 342 statewide, top 100%, 411 students, 87% FRL); Heritage High (math 49% / reading 67%, grade C, #262 of 319 statewide, top 82%, 1,111 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 55% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Newport News City Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $178k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.