3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,666 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Townhouse
· Active
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,669/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,331
Tax + insurance
−$423
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$560
Net cashflow
$353/mo
Annual
$4,242/yr
Cap rate
7.96%
Cash-on-cash
5.97%
DSCR
1.27
1% rule
1.05%
Cash to close
$71,092
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $254k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $254k).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $246k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S1JYP58R062E88
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29