8607 Tropical Aire Ln · Ellenton, FL 34219

$253,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,666 sqft · Townhouse · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $348k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Luxury is in the details of this charming two-story townhome. The first floor enjoys an airy design among the spacious living room, kitchen and dining room, opening to the covered patio for serene outdoor moments. Upstairs, an adaptable central loft leads to two secondary bedrooms and the tranquil owner's suite. The owner's suite is in a privately situated corner, showcasing a full-sized bathroom and large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Central loft
• Covered patio
• Full sized bathroom

Tags

• TWO STORY TOWNHOME
• COVERED PATIO
• CENTRAL LOFT
• FULL SIZED BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed price $258,950; Listing status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family home (St. Thomas II plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,666

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec new construction (St. Thomas II plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $254k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,283 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.97%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,194
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9230 Gulf Haven Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	2mo	$325,000	$180	61
7566 Sea Oak Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	1mo	$334,000	$185	59
9144 Gulf Haven Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	3mo	$299,990	$166	59
9141 Gulf Haven Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	3mo	$311,990	$173	58
9246 Gulf Haven Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	6mo	$310,000	$172	58
7618 Sea Oak Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	3mo	$309,990	$172	57
8807 Sky Sail Cv	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,579 (-5%)	7mo	$357,430	$226	52
8811 Sky Sail Cv	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,579 (-5%)	8mo	$395,040	$250	52
7574 Sea Oak Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	1mo	$329,990	$230	50
9148 Gulf Haven Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	7mo	$319,990	$223	46
7626 Sea Oak Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	5mo	$299,990	$209	46
7610 Sea Oak Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	5mo	$305,000	$213	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-26,409
• Equity at exit: $37,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-24,066
• Equity at exit: $21,953

Cash invested: $71,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,669 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,331
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,808/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $253,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $529	-5% $441	+0% $353	+5% $266	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $143	-5% $248	+0% $353	+5% $459	+10% $564
Rate	-1.0pp $481	-0.5pp $418	base $353	+0.5pp $288	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,475
• Closing costs: $7,617
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	24d	1	0.24mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	24d	1	0.26mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,056	$1.30	2d	32	0.32mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	0.33mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	15d	1	0.46mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	16d	1	0.55mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	21d	1	0.58mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	21d	1	0.58mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	2d	24	0.63mi
10504 Spring Tide Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1533	$2,500	$1.63	3d	1	0.72mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	0.95mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	24d	1	1.01mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	1.18mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	11d	1	1.21mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	3d	1	1.30mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	20d	1	1.34mi
11628 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$3,500	$1.63	21d	1	1.39mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,405	$2.37	3d	50	1.46mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	24d	1	1.49mi
6354 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1123	$2,000	$1.78	24d	1	1.50mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $253,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $253,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $253,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $253,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $253,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $255,250 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $255,250 Active 24 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,222
• − Property taxes: −$3,808
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,562
• − Management: −$2,562
• − Depreciation: −$7,386
• Taxable income: $212
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$51
• After-tax cash flow: $4,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B