3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,120 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 83 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,148/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$577
Tax + insurance
−$219
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$241
Net cashflow
$112/mo
Annual
$1,339/yr
Cap rate
8.23%
Cash-on-cash
6.94%
DSCR
1.31
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$30,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $411 of equity ($761 loan paydown + $-350 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#375 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
Morgan County (rural): math 14% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #150 of 165 in KY (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Morgan County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $33k; list at $110k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in Ezel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S1N85EDGS8B3N8
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29