92 Coal Bucket Rd

Coldiron, KY 40819

$121,600D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · Built 1998 · Other · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $890/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$638
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $-30/mo
• Annual: $-362/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $34,048

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $122k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-362/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (26.8% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $89k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $841 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#398 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harlan County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 997 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 65% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $90k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.