92 Coal Bucket Rd · Coldiron, KY 40819

$121,600

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · Other · 7 Days on market

Built 1998 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This cozy three bedroom home is move in ready with a nice flat yard! The home is conveniently located between Harlan and Pineville giving you an opportunity to shop or work in either town!

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.16 acres (public records)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Mountain and neighborhood views; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fan(s); Primary bedroom on the first floor; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-362/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $89k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#398 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harlan County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 997 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 65% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $841 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,975 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-18,833
• Equity at exit: $21,157

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-16,606
• Equity at exit: $15,786

Cash invested: $34,048 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40819

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$638
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $536/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $928

Max offer price $116,274

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,400
• Closing costs: $3,648
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $121,600 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $121,600 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $121,600 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $121,600 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 189-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $121,600 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $536 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,046 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$509/yr (+$42/mo · 95.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥99°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,811
• − Property taxes: −$536
• − Insurance: −$608
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$854
• − Management: −$854
• − Depreciation: −$3,537
• Taxable loss: −$2,525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$606
• After-tax cash flow: $244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan County
• NCES district ID: 2102540
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $26,283
• Composite: 20.13/100
• National rank: #8642
• State rank: #149 of 165 in KY

Livability — Coldiron

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #19093

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coldiron, KY
• Population (ZIP): 632

Population outlook (Harlan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,324 people
• By 2030: 22,492 · -7.5%
• By 2040: 19,052 · -21.7%
• By 2050: 16,060 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 10,525 · -56.7%
• By 2100: 6,933 · -71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harlan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+71.8 2016: R+72.2 2012: R+64.0 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.44%
• Current HPI: 147.8311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+35.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $121,600 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $536 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.