2627 Mill St

Cazenovia, NY 13035

$99,000B

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,512 sqft · Built 1870 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,542/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$355
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $344/mo
• Annual: $4,131/yr
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.90%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#154 in NY, #2,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: commute F.
• Cazenovia Central School District (town): math 59% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #187 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $74k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 1.3% in Cazenovia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.