2627 Mill St · Cazenovia, NY 13035

$99,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1870 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, here's the value-add deal you've been waiting for. This two-unit residential property in the hamlet of New Woodstock presents a rare opportunity to acquire a multi-family asset at an investor price point and build instant equity through strategic renovation. Both units are primed for a full cosmetic and mechanical overhaul, making this an ideal fix-and-hold for long-term rental income or a fix-and-flip for a quick return. New Woodstock offers the small-town setting within easy reach of Cazenovia and the greater Syracuse area, with steady demand for quality rental housing. The bones are there, bring your contractor and your vision. .. .

Key facts

• Small town setting
• Multi family asset
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO UNIT RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY
• MULTI FAMILY ASSET
• LONG TERM RENTAL INCOME
• SMALL TOWN SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Owner pays: other / see remarks
• Financial info: Two-unit property; Two separate electric meters; one gas meter; Operating expenses and rent details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel and paved parking with two or more spaces
• Utilities: Public water connection; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Two-story multi-family building; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Composite siding
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot measuring approximately 81 x 92; Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchens in both units
• Bedrooms: One unit with 2 bedrooms; One unit with 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one full bathroom per unit)
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired forced air heating
• Interior features: Full basement with dirt floor
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 1.3% in Cazenovia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#154 in NY, #2,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: commute F.
• Cazenovia Central School District (town): math 59% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #187 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $74k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.90%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,904
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2043 Main St	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,528 (+1%)	14mo	$213,000	$84	68
2127 Main St	0.06mi	5/2.0	2,777 (+10%)	16mo	$369,000	$133	66
2613 Mckinley St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,335 (-7%)	15mo	$150,000	$64	64
2096 Elm St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,226 (-11%)	21mo	$260,000	$117	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $6,024
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $34,047
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13035

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,760/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $372	+0% $344	+5% $316	+10% $288
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $283	+0% $344	+5% $405	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $369	base $344	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 666-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 661-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,760 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,760 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$3,760
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$687
• After-tax cash flow: $3,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cazenovia Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606780
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,232
• Composite: 54.68/100
• National rank: #1327
• State rank: #187 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cazenovia

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #2396

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,191

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.79%
• Current HPI: 268.3395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+32.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $99,000 CNYIS
• 2004-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,760 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.