786 Probert St

Big Delta, AK 99737

$130,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 476 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $265/mo
• Annual: $3,186/yr
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.75%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 476 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $760 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#130 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Delta-Greely School District (rural): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #2 of 21 in AK (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Delta Junction Elementary (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #19 of 156 statewide, top 12%, 359 students, 35% FRL); Delta Junction Junior High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #13 of 36 statewide, top 37%, 166 students, 31% FRL); Delta Junction Senior High School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B-, #3 of 61 statewide, top 5%, 165 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP.
• Southeast Fairbanks County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 476 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.