786 Probert St · Big Delta, AK 99737

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 476 Days on market

Built 1980 10,400 sqft lot ↓ 26% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming home in Big Delta, just minutes from a popular local swimming area! This cozy 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features a spacious Arctic entry and an unfinished basement, providing ample storage. The attached 1-car garage includes a dedicated workshop area in the front—perfect for hobbies, projects, or extra storage. Additionally, the property comes with an ATCO trailer, originally intended for conversion into another living space, but offering endless possibilities as a guest cabin, storage, or workspace.

Key facts

• Guest cabin
• Local swimming area
• Attached garage

Tags

• LOCAL SWIMMING AREA
• SPACIOUS ARCTIC ENTRY
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• DEDICATED WORKSHOP AREA
• GUEST CABIN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 0.2 acres; Directions: Richardson Hwy to Probert Street

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Two full bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#130 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Delta-Greely School District (rural): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #2 of 21 in AK (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Delta Junction Elementary (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #19 of 156 statewide, top 12%, 359 students, 35% FRL); Delta Junction Junior High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #13 of 36 statewide, top 37%, 166 students, 31% FRL); Delta Junction Senior High School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B-, #3 of 61 statewide, top 5%, 165 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $760 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Southeast Fairbanks County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 476 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 476 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.75%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $16,741
• Equity at exit: $41,593

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $57,682
• Equity at exit: $53,178

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99737

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $310	+0% $265	+5% $221	+10% $176
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $207	+0% $265	+5% $324	+10% $382
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $299	base $265	+0.5pp $232	+1.0pp $198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 476 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 475 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 474 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 473 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 472 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 470 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 469 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 466 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 465 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 464 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 463 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 460 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 459 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 458 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 457 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 456 DOM
17. 2026-03-24
    price $130,000
18. 2025-06-14
    price $145,000
19. 2025-04-29
    price $155,000
20. 2025-03-24
    price $165,000
21. 2025-02-28
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,187
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$285
• After-tax cash flow: $2,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delta-Greely School District
• NCES district ID: 0200100
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $73,312
• Composite: 46.25/100
• National rank: #2483
• State rank: #2 of 21 in AK

Livability — Big Delta

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #22917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Delta, AK
• Population (ZIP): 4,659

Population outlook (Southeast Fairbanks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,279 people
• By 2030: 6,022 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 5,658 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 5,521 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 5,938 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 6,752 · +7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Subsaharan African 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Southeast Fairbanks

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Current HPI: 134.8903
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-25.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $130,000 GFBR
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $145,000 GFBR
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $155,000 GFBR
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $165,000 GFBR
• 2025-02-28 Listed $175,000 GFBR