21731 Berry Run Rd

Unionville, VA 22960

$215,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,840/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $175/mo
• Annual: $2,095/yr
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (14.4% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $184k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.