21731 Berry Run Rd · Unionville, VA 22960

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2021 2.00 ac lot $177/sqft · 18% below area Est $261k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Location, Location, Location! If you are looking for privacy and convivence this is the property for you. Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on just over 2 acres of peaceful, private land. Built approximately 5 years ago, this home offers modern comfort with thoughtful design throughout. Step inside to find durable luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring and an open, inviting layout ideal for everyday living. The home features exposed beams that add warmth and character, creating a stylish yet comfortable at atmosphere. The spacious kitchen, with a large island and living areas flow seamlessly, while the bedrooms provide ample space and functionality. The kitch

Key facts

• Private land
• Soaking tub
• Large island

Tags

• PRIVATE LAND
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALKING CLOSET
• SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property condition listed as excellent

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic (system sized to less than number of bedrooms); Electric hot water; Municipal trash not provided
• Home design: Manufactured property (single wide); Built year per assessor
• Construction: Modular/manufactured construction; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; No basement; Above-grade and below-grade other structures noted

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Icemaker; Microwave; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Other heating; Electric and leased propane heating fuel; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Walk-in shower; Combination dining and living area; Combination kitchen and living area; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Kitchen table space; Master bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,015 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,662
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -17.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21731 Berry Run Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	0mo	$225,000	$185	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-23,818
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,824
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22960

• Home prices YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $745/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,619

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $235	+0% $175	+5% $114	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $102	+0% $175	+5% $247	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $229	base $175	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $215,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-05
   historical Active Under Contract 1511-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $215,000 Active 1511-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $745 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,018/yr (+$85/mo · 136.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$745
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,569
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$377
• After-tax cash flow: $2,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,086
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2147
• State rank: #71 of 131 in VA

Livability — Unionville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,877

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,758 people
• By 2030: 40,411 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 43,477 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 45,856 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 51,067 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 51,387 · +32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 17% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.2% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+14.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.60%
• Current HPI: 350.4024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+4.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Sold (MLS) $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $745 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.