3 Emerald Trl

Mountain Lodge Park, NY 10950

$299,999C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,489/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$818
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$733
• Net cashflow: $365/mo
• Annual: $4,375/yr
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#308 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtonville Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #288 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $300k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.3% in Mountain Lodge Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,489/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 3149% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.