3 Emerald Trl · Mountain Lodge Park, NY 10950

$299,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1970 8,000 sqft lot $176/sqft · 18% below area Est $368k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique property offering space, flexibility, and privacy in quiet Mountain Lodge Park setting. One of the standout features is the oversized detached garage with a large open loft space above. Possibilities are endless providing excellent potential for a workshop, studio, hobby space, extensive storage, or even additional living space for multi-generational living. The main home offers a spacious layout with a large living room, kitchen with ample cabinetry and gas cooking, a formal dining room area and a bonus area that could easily function as another bedroom, office, or additional living space. A convenient half bath adds everyday functionality. Upstairs you'll find four bedrooms-two of which share the Jack-and-Jill bathroom with laundry access for convenience. Outside, the patio and grill area between the home and garage create a private outdoor space ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Situated on a private road with minimal nearby homes, this property offers a quiet setting while still being within reasonable distance to shopping, parks, and commuter routes. With its versatile layout and additional garage space, this home presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to personalize a property and create something special using its unique features! Updates include new roof 3.5 years ago, reverse osmosis, water softener, UV light, solar panels, and attic pull down access.

Key facts

• Solar panels
• New roof
• 8,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE OPEN LOFT SPACE
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE
• JACK-AND-JILL BATHROOM
• NEW ROOF
• SOLAR PANELS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.3% in Mountain Lodge Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#308 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtonville Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #288 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,489/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 3149% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $300k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,999 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,598
• List price: $299,999
• Delta: -18.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Arcadian Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,842 (+8%)	23mo	$349,000	$189	57
27 Laurel Trl	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,559 (-9%)	16mo	$280,500	$180	54
11 Lookout Trl	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,520 (-11%)	13mo	$325,000	$214	51
4 Cedar Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (+11%)	16mo	$452,500	$239	41
26 Revere Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,482 (-13%)	7mo	$410,000	$277	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-30,332
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-16,160
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10950

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,489 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$693 /mo · $8,322/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$733
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,027

Max offer price $299,999

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Ascension Trl Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$2,275	$1.52	21d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,999 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,999 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,999 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,999 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,999 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,999 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $299,999 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $324,999 1400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1400 chars)

    Unique property offering space, flexibility, and privacy in quiet Mountain Lodge Park setting. One of the standout features is the oversized detached garage with a large open loft space above. Possibilities are endless providing excellent potential for a workshop, studio, hobby space, extensive storage, or even additional living space for multi-generational living. The main home offers a spacious layout with a large living room, kitchen with ample cabinetry and gas cooking, a formal dining room area and a bonus area that could easily function as another bedroom, office, or additional living space. A convenient half bath adds everyday functionality. Upstairs you'll find four bedrooms-two of which share the Jack-and-Jill bathroom with laundry access for convenience. Outside, the patio and grill area between the home and garage create a private outdoor space ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Situated on a private road with minimal nearby homes, this property offers a quiet setting while still being within reasonable distance to shopping, parks, and commuter routes. With its versatile layout and additional garage space, this home presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to personalize a property and create something special using its unique features! Updates include new roof 3.5 years ago, reverse osmosis, water softener, UV light, solar panels, and attic pull down access.

18. 2026-03-11
    listed $335,000 Active 1400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1400 chars)

    Unique property offering space, flexibility, and privacy in quiet Mountain Lodge Park setting. One of the standout features is the oversized detached garage with a large open loft space above. Possibilities are endless providing excellent potential for a workshop, studio, hobby space, extensive storage, or even additional living space for multi-generational living. The main home offers a spacious layout with a large living room, kitchen with ample cabinetry and gas cooking, a formal dining room area and a bonus area that could easily function as another bedroom, office, or additional living space. A convenient half bath adds everyday functionality. Upstairs you'll find four bedrooms-two of which share the Jack-and-Jill bathroom with laundry access for convenience. Outside, the patio and grill area between the home and garage create a private outdoor space ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Situated on a private road with minimal nearby homes, this property offers a quiet setting while still being within reasonable distance to shopping, parks, and commuter routes. With its versatile layout and additional garage space, this home presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to personalize a property and create something special using its unique features! Updates include new roof 3.5 years ago, reverse osmosis, water softener, UV light, solar panels, and attic pull down access.

19. 2018-12-21
    soldstatus $122,500 Sold 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Big house with huge detached two car garage. Very large living room and tons of cabinets in the kitchen. Needs some work but lots of potential here. Close proximity to Mountain Lodge Firehouse. Good commuter location. Easy access to all commuter lines and area amenities. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

20. 2018-09-06
    historical Pending 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Big house with huge detached two car garage. Very large living room and tons of cabinets in the kitchen. Needs some work but lots of potential here. Close proximity to Mountain Lodge Firehouse. Good commuter location. Easy access to all commuter lines and area amenities. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

21. 2018-08-08
    price $124,900 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Big house with huge detached two car garage. Very large living room and tons of cabinets in the kitchen. Needs some work but lots of potential here. Close proximity to Mountain Lodge Firehouse. Good commuter location. Easy access to all commuter lines and area amenities. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

22. 2018-05-25
    price $131,900 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Big house with huge detached two car garage. Very large living room and tons of cabinets in the kitchen. Needs some work but lots of potential here. Close proximity to Mountain Lodge Firehouse. Good commuter location. Easy access to all commuter lines and area amenities. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

23. 2018-04-27
    listed $136,900 Active 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Big house with huge detached two car garage. Very large living room and tons of cabinets in the kitchen. Needs some work but lots of potential here. Close proximity to Mountain Lodge Firehouse. Good commuter location. Easy access to all commuter lines and area amenities. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

24. 2009-07-09
    soldstatus $275,000
25. 1997-04-14
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,322 · $693/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,322 · $693/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$8,322
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,349
• − Management: −$3,349
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$44
• After-tax cash flow: $4,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630030
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,379
• Composite: 48.15/100
• National rank: #2178
• State rank: #288 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mountain Lodge Park

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #308
• US rank: #5092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Lodge Park, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,136
• Household income: $78,931
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3149.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · German/W. Germanic 52% Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 314.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+209.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $324,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $335,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-21 Sold (MLS) $122,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-06 Contingent — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-08 Price Changed $124,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-25 Price Changed $131,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-27 Listed $136,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 1997-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,322 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.