4045 Hodgson Rd #107

Shoreview, MN 55126

$142,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · Built 1971 · Condo · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,657/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$423
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-1,001/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $39,760

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (10.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#89 in MN, #2,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Mounds View Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #30 of 301 in MN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Island Lake Elementary (math 72% / reading 68%, grade A-, #71 of 857 statewide, top 8%, 743 students, 20% FRL); Chippewa Middle School (math 62% / reading 74%, grade A-, #8 of 258 statewide, top 3%, 1,089 students, 17% FRL); Mounds View Senior High (math 77% / reading 74%, grade A-, #5 of 471 statewide, top 1%, 1,901 students, 18% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Shoreview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.