4045 Hodgson Rd #107 · Shoreview, MN 55126

$142,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · Condo public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1971 $423/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MINT CONDTION GARDEN LEVEL W/ ACCESS TO THE OUTDOOR SWIMMING POOL & GREEN SPACERIGHT FROM YOUR VERY PRIVATE PATIO.BEAUTIFUL REMODELED KITCHEN FEAT ABUNDANCE OF CABINETS&COUNTER SPACE . OPEN TO THE LIVING RM.NEW FLOORING IN LIVING RM, 6 INCH BASEBOARD THRU OUT & NEW CARPETING IN OWNERS SUITE WHICH FEATURES ADDITIONAL CLOSET SPACE INSTALLED BY PREVIOUS OWNERS.NEW WALL A/C, FRESH PAINTED INTERIOR SHARED AMENTIES FEAT EXERCISE RM,PARTY RM, LAUNDRYRM, LIBRARY, STORAGE RM FOR BIKES & GUEST SUITE. WALKING DISTANCE TO SNAIL LK REGIONAL PARK & TRAILS & CLOSE TO SHOPPING & EASY ACESS TO BOTH DOWNTOWNS

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Community pool
• Natural light

Tags

• GROUND-LEVEL CONDO
• OPEN GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PATIO
• COMMUNITY POOL
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CLOSE TO PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fee assessed monthly
• HOA & community: Self-managed association; Monthly association fee (includes controlled access, hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, sewer, shared amenities, snow removal, water); Elevator(s) available; Shared amenities: Amusement/party room, community room, exercise room, guest suite

Exterior

• Parking: Underground garage with heater and garage door opener; 1 garage space
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; One story; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and concrete construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone exterior; Below-ground pool; Lot approximately 4.22 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: One bedroom (Main level) — approx. 15 x 15
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (Main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Refrigerator; Main floor full bath; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (14.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Shoreview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#89 in MN, #2,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Mounds View Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #30 of 301 in MN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Island Lake Elementary (math 72% / reading 68%, grade A-, #71 of 857 statewide, top 8%, 743 students, 20% FRL); Chippewa Middle School (math 62% / reading 74%, grade A-, #8 of 258 statewide, top 3%, 1,089 students, 17% FRL); Mounds View Senior High (math 77% / reading 74%, grade A-, #5 of 471 statewide, top 1%, 1,901 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.

Recommended offer $121,809 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-28,915
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-28,862
• Equity at exit: $12,278

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55126

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,984/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$423
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,762

Max offer price $121,809

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-74	+0% $-114	+5% $-154	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-178	+0% $-114	+5% $-50	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-43	-0.5pp $-78	base $-114	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
418 Highway 96 W Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,480	$1.71	0d	1	1.11mi
3500 Rice St Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$2,318	$2.54	0d	18	1.16mi
577 Harriet Ave Shoreview, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	1d	30	1.41mi
3529 Owasso St Shoreview, MN	1.0	1.0	625	$1,550	$2.48	46d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $423 · $5,076/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $142,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $142,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $142,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $142,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$1,984
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − HOA: −$5,076
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable loss: −$3,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$852
• After-tax cash flow: $-520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mounds View Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2722950
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $72,492
• Composite: 54.04/100
• National rank: #1390
• State rank: #30 of 301 in MN

Livability — Shoreview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shoreview, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 27,456
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 27,456
• Household income: $108,217
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Asian 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.72%
• Current HPI: 245.484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+448.3% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $142,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-26 Sold (MLS) $145,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-10 Listed $145,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-28 Sold (MLS) $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-31 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-12 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listed $120,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $82,876 Public Records
• 2015-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2015-06-23 Sold (MLS) $67,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-22 Listed $70,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-13 Sold (MLS) $59,250 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-29 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-08 Price Changed $57,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-12 Price Changed $64,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-07 Listed $74,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-09-26 Sold (MLS) $28,250 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-07-05 Listed $29,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-05-30 Sold (MLS) $24,600 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-03-05 Listed $25,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,984 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.