101 Begonia Ct

Vista Center, NJ 08527

$339,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,751 sqft · Built 1988 · Townhouse · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,322/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$322
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $-91/mo
• Annual: $-1,087/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (2.0% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $298k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lucy N. Holman Elementary School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #710 of 1,303 statewide, top 55%, 498 students, 44% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle School (math 21% / reading 47%, grade F, #259 of 431 statewide, top 61%, 722 students, 42% FRL); Jackson Liberty High School (math 16% / reading 50%, grade F, #259 of 399 statewide, top 66%, 1,141 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 15% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 12 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.