101 Begonia Ct · Vista Center, NJ 08527

$339,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,751 sqft · Townhouse public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1988 435 sqft lot $194/sqft · 6% below area Est $361k · 6% under $322/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This thoughtfully updated Astor III model offers versatile living space in the desirable Sixty Acres. The open-concept main level features vaulted ceilings and a 2-story living room with a wood-burning fireplace, flowing into a formal dining room and a completely renovated kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and more. The main level also features 2 bedrooms, a large full bath, and in-unit laundry. Ascend the spiral staircase to discover a sprawling loft space, perfect for a home office, play area, or den, and the third bedroom, the upper level also has a full bath Additional highlights include newer doors, trim,and fresh finishes. End-unit positioning affords extra privacy and natural light. 60 Acres has a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and more!

Key facts

• Sprawling loft space
• Granite countertops
• $322 HOA

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SPRAWLING LOFT SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lucy N. Holman Elementary School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #710 of 1,303 statewide, top 55%, 498 students, 44% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle School (math 21% / reading 47%, grade F, #259 of 431 statewide, top 61%, 722 students, 42% FRL); Jackson Liberty High School (math 16% / reading 50%, grade F, #259 of 399 statewide, top 66%, 1,141 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 15% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $298,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,946
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -6.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Begonia Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,751 (0%)	5mo	$375,000	$214	94
307 Sage Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,751 (0%)	3mo	$355,000	$203	92
209 Begonia Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,751 (0%)	10mo	$347,500	$198	89
505 Begonia Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,751 (0%)	11mo	$375,000	$214	85
1402 Violet Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,751 (0%)	13mo	$366,000	$209	84
73 Rita Ln	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,680 (-4%)	3mo	$369,250	$220	67
167 Meli Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,680 (-4%)	8mo	$345,000	$205	64
116 Joan Ct	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,640 (-6%)	4mo	$350,000	$213	57
111 Joan Ct	0.48mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,600 (-9%)	3mo	$352,000	$220	54
137 Meli Ln	0.38mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,664 (-5%)	16mo	$339,999	$204	54
39 Renee Ct	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,920 (+10%)	14mo	$410,000	$214	53
9 Shilling Way	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,529 (-13%)	14mo	$405,000	$265	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-70,156
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-105,007
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$474 /mo · $5,687/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$322
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,437

Max offer price $323,005

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $5	+0% $-91	+5% $-186	+10% $-282
Rent	-10% $-353	-5% $-222	+0% $-91	+5% $41	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $-4	base $-91	+0.5pp $-178	+1.0pp $-268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
156 Brookfield Dr Jackson, NJ	2.0	2.5	1276	$2,600	$2.04	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $322 · $3,864/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricestatus $339,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-04-01
   price $349,000 782-char remark

   Show marketing remark (782 chars)

   This thoughtfully updated Astor III model offers versatile living space in the desirable Sixty Acres. The open-concept main level features vaulted ceilings and a 2-story living room with a wood-burning fireplace, flowing into a formal dining room and a completely renovated kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and more. The main level also features 2 bedrooms, a large full bath, and in-unit laundry. Ascend the spiral staircase to discover a sprawling loft space, perfect for a home office, play area, or den, and the third bedroom, the upper level also has a full bath Additional highlights include newer doors, trim,and fresh finishes. End-unit positioning affords extra privacy and natural light. 60 Acres has a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and more!

10. 2026-03-11
    price $354,000 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    This thoughtfully updated Astor III model offers versatile living space in the desirable Sixty Acres. The open-concept main level features vaulted ceilings and a 2-story living room with a wood-burning fireplace, flowing into a formal dining room and a completely renovated kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and more. The main level also features 2 bedrooms, a large full bath, and in-unit laundry. Ascend the spiral staircase to discover a sprawling loft space, perfect for a home office, play area, or den, and the third bedroom, the upper level also has a full bath Additional highlights include newer doors, trim,and fresh finishes. End-unit positioning affords extra privacy and natural light. 60 Acres has a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and more!

11. 2026-02-24
    price $359,000 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    This thoughtfully updated Astor III model offers versatile living space in the desirable Sixty Acres. The open-concept main level features vaulted ceilings and a 2-story living room with a wood-burning fireplace, flowing into a formal dining room and a completely renovated kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and more. The main level also features 2 bedrooms, a large full bath, and in-unit laundry. Ascend the spiral staircase to discover a sprawling loft space, perfect for a home office, play area, or den, and the third bedroom, the upper level also has a full bath Additional highlights include newer doors, trim,and fresh finishes. End-unit positioning affords extra privacy and natural light. 60 Acres has a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and more!

12. 2025-12-30
    historical

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    This thoughtfully updated Astor III model offers versatile living space in the desirable Sixty Acres. The open-concept main level features vaulted ceilings and a 2-story living room with a wood-burning fireplace, flowing into a formal dining room and a completely renovated kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and more. The main level also features 2 bedrooms, a large full bath, and in-unit laundry. Ascend the spiral staircase to discover a sprawling loft space, perfect for a home office, play area, or den, and the third bedroom, the upper level also has a full bath Additional highlights include newer doors, trim,and fresh finishes. End-unit positioning affords extra privacy and natural light. 60 Acres has a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and more!

13. 2025-12-30
    listed $365,000 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    This thoughtfully updated Astor III model offers versatile living space in the desirable Sixty Acres. The open-concept main level features vaulted ceilings and a 2-story living room with a wood-burning fireplace, flowing into a formal dining room and a completely renovated kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and more. The main level also features 2 bedrooms, a large full bath, and in-unit laundry. Ascend the spiral staircase to discover a sprawling loft space, perfect for a home office, play area, or den, and the third bedroom, the upper level also has a full bath Additional highlights include newer doors, trim,and fresh finishes. End-unit positioning affords extra privacy and natural light. 60 Acres has a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and more!

14. 2025-12-11
    status Active
15. 2025-12-02
    status Pending
16. 2025-10-13
    price $369,900
17. 2025-09-06
    price $374,900
18. 2025-07-14
    listed $379,000 Active
19. 2023-08-02
    soldstatus $342,500
20. 2023-07-13
    historical
21. 2023-07-12
    soldstatus $342,500 Sold
22. 2023-07-12
    soldstatus $342,500 Closed
23. 2023-06-16
    status Pending
24. 2023-06-16
    status Pending
25. 2023-05-08
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2023-05-05
    historical Active/Under Contract
27. 2023-04-24
    status Active
28. 2023-04-24
    historical
29. 2023-04-21
    historical
30. 2023-04-21
    historical
31. 2023-04-21
    listed $339,900 Active
32. 2023-04-21
    listed $339,900 Active
33. 2023-03-23
    historical Active Under Contract
34. 2023-03-23
    historical Active/Under Contract
35. 2023-03-13
    status Active
36. 2023-03-13
    status Active
37. 2023-03-10
    historical Active Under Contract
38. 2023-03-10
    historical Active/Under Contract
39. 2023-03-06
    listed $339,900 Active
40. 2023-03-03
    listed $339,900 Active
41. 2018-05-16
    historical
42. 2018-03-15
    price $215,000
43. 2018-01-17
    listed $218,000 Active
44. 2017-03-21
    historical
45. 2017-01-22
    status Pending
46. 2016-11-22
    price $195,900
47. 2016-10-04
    price $199,900
48. 2016-08-21
    listed $215,000 Active
49. 2006-01-25
    soldstatus $235,000
50. 2005-11-21
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,687 · $474/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,064 · $589/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,377/yr (+$115/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$5,687
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,189
• − Management: −$3,189
• − HOA: −$3,864
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$6,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,587
• After-tax cash flow: $500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vista Center

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #21522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+203.1% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $349,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $354,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $359,000 MOMLS
• 2025-12-30 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $365,000 MOMLS
• 2025-12-11 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2025-12-02 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $369,900 MOMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $374,900 MOMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $379,000 MOMLS
• 2023-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $342,500 Public Records
• 2023-07-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-12 Sold (MLS) $342,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-12 Sold (MLS) $342,500 MOMLS
• 2023-06-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-16 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-05-08 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-05 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2023-04-24 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-21 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2023-04-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-21 Listed $339,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-21 Listed $339,900 MOMLS
• 2023-03-23 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-23 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2023-03-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-13 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2023-03-10 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-10 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2023-03-06 Listed $339,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-03 Listed $339,900 MOMLS
• 2018-05-16 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2018-03-15 Price Changed $215,000 MOMLS
• 2018-01-17 Listed $218,000 MOMLS
• 2017-03-21 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2017-01-22 Pending — MOMLS
• 2016-11-22 Price Changed $195,900 MOMLS
• 2016-10-04 Price Changed $199,900 MOMLS
• 2016-08-21 Listed $215,000 MOMLS
• 2006-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 1988-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $115,140 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,687 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.