2235 Mountain Mist

Timberwood Park, TX 78258-4914

$415,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,603 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$771
• HOA: −$89
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $-697/mo
• Annual: $-8,368/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.20%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-697 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $292k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#607 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tuscany Heights (math 47% / reading 61%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 686 students, 21% FRL); Tejeda Middle (math 55% / reading 66%, grade B+, #154 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,055 students, 23% FRL); Johnson H S (math 69% / reading 80%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 3,202 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the North East ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Timberwood Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.