738 Trout Creek Dr

Fairplay, CO 80440

$365,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,319 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,958/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $97/mo
• Annual: $1,159/yr
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (19.0% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $296k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#56 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Park County School District No. Re-2 (rural): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 176 in CO (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edith Teter Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #604 of 966 statewide, top 63%, 211 students, 39% FRL); South Park Middle School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 98 students, 36% FRL); South Park High School (math 10% / reading 70%, grade F, #167 of 381 statewide, top 46%, 124 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 352 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 144 units permitted in Park County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Park County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.8% in Fairplay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.