738 Trout Creek Dr · Fairplay, CO 80440

$365,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,319 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2007 7,405 sqft lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity, primary residence, or both-this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of Fairplay offers flexibility, convenience, and easy mountain-town living. Currently operating as a long-term rental with tenants in place, this property offers an attractive option for investors seeking immediate rental income while also appealing to buyers looking for a comfortable home in one of Colorado's most desirable mountain communities. Inside, you'll find a functional open-concept floor plan with vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, spacious bedrooms, and an attached 2-car garage for vehicles, gear, and storage. The layout is designed for easy everyday living, with a seamless flow between the living room, dining area, and kitchen. The location is where this property truly shines. Enjoy quick access to downtown Fairplay's restaurants, coffee shops, grocery store, schools, local events, and historic attractions. Outdoor recreation is in every direction, with the South Platte River, Fairplay Beach, miles of Gold Medal fishing waters, hiking and biking trails, Pike National Forest, and countless camping opportunities just minutes away. Fairplay is known as Colorado's Trout Fishing Capital and serves as a gateway to year-round mountain adventure. Whether you're looking to expand your investment portfolio, secure housing in a community where inventory remains limited, or enjoy a home base with easy access to Breckenridge, Buena Vista, and the surrounding Rockies, this property offers an exceptional opportunity in a growing mountain market.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Natural light
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ATTACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• QUICK ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• Financial info: Property used as live/work; Lease term noted as 12 months with a lease amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two off-street spaces (total parking for four); Concrete parking surface
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry; Live/work allowed; Unattached property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Level lot; Natural vegetation; Paved public road access maintained year-round

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings with vaulted areas; Open floor plan; Pantry; Smoke-free; No stairs
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.8% in Fairplay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#56 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Park County School District No. Re-2 (rural): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 176 in CO (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edith Teter Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #604 of 966 statewide, top 63%, 211 students, 39% FRL); South Park Middle School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 98 students, 36% FRL); South Park High School (math 10% / reading 70%, grade F, #167 of 381 statewide, top 46%, 124 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 352 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 144 units permitted in Park County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Park County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $295,827 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,366
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21980 Us-285 #7	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-11%)	11mo	$120,000	$102	52
21980 US Highway 285 #60	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-11%)	12mo	$125,000	$106	47
21980 Us Highway 285 #23	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,186 (-10%)	20mo	$142,000	$120	43
21980 Us Highway 285 #33	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,186 (-10%)	21mo	$135,000	$114	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-53,121
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-38,856
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80440

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,091/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,836

Max offer price $365,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $303	-5% $200	+0% $97	+5% $-7	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-20	+0% $97	+5% $213	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $189	base $97	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $365,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $365,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $365,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $365,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $365,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,091
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,840
• − Management: −$2,840
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$5,160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,238
• After-tax cash flow: $2,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Park County School District No. Re-2
• NCES district ID: 0803840
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,367
• Composite: 30.72/100
• National rank: #11416
• State rank: #89 of 176 in CO

Livability — Fairplay

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #5693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairplay, CO
• County: Park County · 3,502 people
• City population: 3,502
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• Population (ZIP): 3,502
• Household income: $116,143
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 40.0

Population outlook (Park County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,411 people
• By 2030: 17,584 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 17,261 · -0.9%
• By 2050: 16,115 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 14,174 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 11,928 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 6% Italian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Park

• 2024 margin: R (+16.5) · D 40.2% · R 56.7% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.5 2020: R+17.0 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.95%
• Current HPI: 311.6556
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-25.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $365,000 IRES
• 2026-06-10 Listed $365,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Rental Removed $2,600 RENT.
• 2024-09-15 Rental Removed $2,600 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-13 Listed for Rent $2,600 RENT.
• 2024-08-24 Listed for Rent $2,800 APPFOLIO
• 2021-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $236,500 Public Records
• 2003-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $492,298 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,091 · -9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.