2916 Elm St

Toledo, OH 43608

$73,300B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Built 1907 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,087/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$384
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $384/mo
• Annual: $4,610/yr
• Cap rate: 12.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.46%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $20,524

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $71k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $507 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spring Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,554 of 1,584 statewide, top 100%, 231 students, 0% FRL); Woodward High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #726 of 781 statewide, top 94%, 672 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 59 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 7.7% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($29k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.