407 N 5th St

Vega, TX 79092

$145,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,257/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$337
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-104/mo
• Annual: $-1,249/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Vega ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #77 of 1,141 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vega El (math 74% / reading 64%, grade A-, #146 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 144 students, 35% FRL); Vega J H (math 52% / reading 62%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 111 students, 24% FRL); Vega H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 115 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.
• Oldham County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.