407 N 5th St · Vega, TX 79092

$145,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1989

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well kept single family home in a great neighborhood in Vega, TX. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home has a attached one car garage and a 30X24 Tedco workshop on the property. The workshop has an efficiency apartment located inside. Shop if insulated and apartment is climate controlled. There are numerous fruit trees and two pecan trees on the property. Newer backyard fence and some flooring and paint have been updated in the residence.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Insulated workshop
• Shaded back yard

Tags

• CLASS 4 ROOF
• INSULATED WORKSHOP
• CLIMATE CONTROLLED APARTMENT
• SHADED BACK YARD
• FENCED BACK YARD
• FRUIT TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (garage faces front) with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Brick / brick veneer construction; Slab foundation; Built with brick materials
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas central heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Vega ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #77 of 1,141 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vega El (math 74% / reading 64%, grade A-, #146 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 144 students, 35% FRL); Vega J H (math 52% / reading 62%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 111 students, 24% FRL); Vega H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 115 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Oldham County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $125,699 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $10,915
• Equity at exit: $65,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $48,277
• Equity at exit: $100,478

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79092

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,316/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $126,612

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-63	+0% $-104	+5% $-145	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-154	+0% $-104	+5% $-54	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-67	base $-104	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    price $145,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 30 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
19. 2026-05-02
    listed $160,000 Active 455-char remark
20. 2022-10-04
    soldstatus
21. 2022-09-28
    soldstatus 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Well kept single family home in a great neighborhood in Vega, TX. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home has a attached one car garage and a 30X24 Tedco workshop on the property. The workshop has an efficiency apartment located inside. Shop if insulated and apartment is climate controlled. There are numerous fruit trees and two pecan trees on the property. Newer backyard fence and some flooring and paint have been updated in the residence.

22. 2022-08-15
    listed $135,000 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Well kept single family home in a great neighborhood in Vega, TX. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home has a attached one car garage and a 30X24 Tedco workshop on the property. The workshop has an efficiency apartment located inside. Shop if insulated and apartment is climate controlled. There are numerous fruit trees and two pecan trees on the property. Newer backyard fence and some flooring and paint have been updated in the residence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,316 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,316 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,316
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$891
• After-tax cash flow: $-359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vega ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843980
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,368
• Composite: 56.95/100
• National rank: #2372
• State rank: #77 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Vega

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #5211

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vega, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,187

Population outlook (Oldham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,439 people
• By 2030: 2,557 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 2,768 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 2,848 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 2,728 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 2,846 · +16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Oldham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+84.3) · D 7.6% · R 91.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -77.3pp · 2024: -84.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+84.3 2020: R+82.8 2016: R+81.7 2012: R+82.7 2008: R+77.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $145,000 AARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $160,000 AARMLS
• 2022-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-28 Sold (MLS) — AARMLS
• 2022-08-15 Listed $135,000 AARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,316 · +35.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.