25635 Kargat St

Lake Hughes, CA 93536

$350,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Active · 684 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$518
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-8/mo
• Annual: $-90/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-90/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 684 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,119 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1129 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Lake Hughes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 684 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.